Weekly Currency Report and Trend


Market Outlook
The Rupee on Thursday closed two week higher against the US dollar tracking its Asian peers ahead of the start of the central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole. Consistent selling of dollars by some foreign banks and unwinding of short-term forward contracts by exporters mainly boosted the sentiment for the local unit,
Traders also cautious ahead of the speeches from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Symposium on 25 August and 26 August, respectively.


Fundamental News
• Rupee swings back to 2-week high of 64.04, gains 8 paise.
• China’s yuan slips on corporate dollar demand, but liquidity still tight.
• Japanese Core Inflation Rises 0.5% in July, Matching Forecasts.
• Euro jumps vs dollar to highest since January 2015 after ECB’s Draghi’s speech.


Global Updates
• Dollar slides after Fed’s Yellen makes no monetary policy comment.
• German private sector output growth strengthens in August.
• French private sector growth stagnates, but remains marked in August.
• Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 234,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week.
• German Business Confidence Weakens Even as Economy Forges Ahead.
• Rise in U.S. Business Equipment Orders Signals Steady Investment.



USDINR last week moved in a specific range and traded mainly in sideways to negative note. Closing of the week in red and near to supports indicate that if it holds below the level of 64.0000 then it may further drop towards next support whereas 64.2000 is seen as immediate resistance.


EURINR last week moved in a strict range and closed on a flat note. It needs a specific breakout on either side to decide the trend further. On lower side, 75.2000 is seen as important support whereas 76.0000 is marked as immediate resistance for the currency pair.



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