Currency Weekly Report for The Trader

Market Outlook

The rupee is  consciously strong against the dollar in last week and showed some recovery  which was  up 7 paise to 63.59 against the dollar in early session on Friday, helped by selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Meanwhile, domestic stock markets opened in the green following strong global cues. The dollar fell to a fresh three-year low against a currency basket on Thursday, a day after the Trump administration signaled that it preferred a weaker currency, while the euro was steady ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision.

Fundamental News

  •  The dollar skidded lower after U.S. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday that a “weaker dollar is good for trade.”
  •  The euro fell below the 87 pence mark against the sterling for the first time in seven months as the British pound’s rally against the dollar this week spread to other currencies.

Global Updates

  • Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey came in at 11, above expectations (10.8) in February.
  • Cryptocurrencies extend the bounce, Bitcoin jumps 9%, Ethereum up 11%.
  • Japan Foreign bond investment fell from previous ¥953.5B to ¥411.1B in January 19
  • South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) registered at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in 1Q.
  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.4%) in 4Q.
  • United States 5-Year Note Auction up to 2.434% from previous 2.245%.

USDINR

pair last week was unable to hold its higher level and drag down, for upcoming week it may continue it’s down side movement. It has major support level of 63.5000 if it sustain below this mark then more selling pressure may continue towards next support level of 62.9000. On higher side it has 64.2000 as a resistance level above this upside movement can be witness towards next major resistance of 64.7000.

EURINR

pair last week has given resistance breakout and continued its upward rally and made 52 week high. For upcoming week if it manages to hold above its immediate resistance mark of 79.5000 then it can move towards next major resistance level of 80.5000. On downward side it is taking support of 78.8000 below this level profit booking may be seen and it can drag down towards next crucial support level of 78.0000.

 

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